Top-10 Favorites for Giro d'Italia 2024
01 May 2024, by Bert Lip
Last year ProCyclingStats analysed the breakdown of how riders won time in grand tours. Read here how we did that. Looking at the last 10 years of grand tours, 64% of time won comes from the mountain stages against 26% of the time won in time trials. Looking at the favorites for the Giro d'Italia, we focus on these two important specialties.
Figure 1. The breakdown of time won on the top-5 by the winner of grand tours in the last 10 years.
The 2024 Giro has eight stages with a profile score over 200 and two time trials of in total 71.6 kilometre. We apply a formula that includes climbing and time trial capabilities, with more weight on the climbing. We take in results from the past 18 months, with recent results getting more weight. Furthermore we look at the track record of riders in grand tours. For example, has a rider 10 grand tour results without any top-10 finish, points are subtracted. If a rider has 4 top-10 results out of 5, points are added. Combining theses three factors, climbing, time trial and grand tour track record, yields the following graph for the Giro favorites.
Figure 2. Favorites according to a weighted scored formula based on climber and time trial capabilities.
| Rider | Normalized score | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | POGAČAR Tadej | ||
| 2 | BARDET Romain | ||
| 3 | O'CONNOR Ben | ||
| 4 | PARET-PEINTRE Aurélien | ||
| 5 | THOMAS Geraint | ||
| 6 | RUBIO Einer | ||
| 7 | CARUSO Damiano | ||
| 8 | TIBERI Antonio | ||
| 9 | WOODS Michael | ||
| 10 | ARENSMAN Thymen |
It may not suprise anyone that Tadej Pogačar is at the top of the list. The gap with number two is impressive, Romain Bardet receives a score of 46%, followed by [Ben O'Connor] with 41%. Last year Evenepoel was the favorite with Roglič in second with 80%.
By looking at historical data these predictions tend to underestimate young and upcoming riders. Therefore we look with special attention to the younger riders in this list. Einer Rubio rode Giro (11th) and Vuelta (16th) last year and is certainly a contender for the top-10 and could take another stage win. Antonio Tiberi debuts in the Giro, he finished 18th in last year's Vuelta. Cian Uijtdebroeks has only 1 grand tour start to this name, but finished with a impressive 8th place in his grand tour debut.
Figure 3. Favorites according to a weighted scored formula based on climber and time trial capabilities.
| Rider | Normalized score | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | POGAČAR Tadej | ||
| 2 | BARDET Romain | ||
| 3 | O'CONNOR Ben | ||
| 4 | MARTÍNEZ Daniel Felipe | ||
| 5 | THOMAS Geraint | ||
| 6 | TIBERI Antonio | ||
| 7 | RUBIO Einer | ||
| 8 | ARENSMAN Thymen | ||
| 9 | CARUSO Damiano | ||
| 10 | PARET-PEINTRE Aurélien |
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