In the run-up to the Tour de France, the perennial debate about the route has once again ignited with full force. Is this year's Tour de France designed for climbers? Or is it more suited for sprinters? Will the time trial specialists get ample opportunities? Or has the route been carefully crafted to favor a French rider in the overall standings?
Well, that is quite clear. Sprinters determined the stage results in the Tour de France almost twice as often as in the Vuelta over the past 10 years. Compared to the Giro, the fast men were celebrating almost one-third more frequently in the Tour.
Therefore, traditionally, the Tour de France is the optimal choice for sprinters. However, it begs the question: how have the prospects for sprinters evolved within the Tour de France in recent years?
Impressive! That marks a notable trend. Starting from 2017, when there were a total of 10 sprint stages in the Tour, all the way to the most recent edition, where the sprinters went head-to-head 'only' four times, there has been a consistent decline in the number of sprint opportunities within the Tour de France each passing year.
And what about this year? When viewed through the lens of sprinters, how does the course shape up?
Alright. There are four stages categorized as 'flat', eight stages set in hilly landscapes, and an additional eight stages challenging the riders in the mountains.
Does this automatically translate to four sprint finishes in the Tour de France? Not quite! Let's delve into the data and see how many of the so-called 'flat' stages in recent years have truly culminated in a bunch sprint:
So, it turns out that slightly over three-quarters of the flat stages have witnessed a thrilling mass sprint since 2011. Applying this trend to this year's elite, we can anticipate around three mass sprint finishes.
But are we done here? Not quite! It would be a bit disappointing for the vast sprinting contingent that has geared up for the Tour de France. In some of the milder hilly stages, the sprinters also have a chance to claim victory.
All the stages designated as 'flat' this year maintain a profile score of 20 or lower. However, what lies ahead in the stages with a slightly higher profile score? Let's explore:
That's quite a substantial number! It wouldn't be surprising, therefore, if three more stages among the mentioned ones conclude in a sprint involving a sizable peloton. In certain instances it might favor the sprinters with stronger climbing capabilities.
When we add it all up, the data suggests six opportunities for the sprinters. It's not a remarkably high score compared to the past 20 editions.
To sum up, these are the stages where the sprinters have a chance:
The complete top 3 of the current sprinters ranking is present at the Tour! See below how the top sprinters warmed up for the big showdown in France:
By the way, in our recent inquiry about which sprinter you anticipated to dominate the stage victories in the Tour de France, here are the results that emerged:
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